NEW YORK TIMES

Published Aug. 24, 2005

The Bush administration's long-awaited plan to overhaul fuel economy regulations was released yesterday, promising to save gasoline by requiring modest improvements in the performance of sport utility vehicles and other trucks.

But the proposal was swiftly condemned by environmental groups and other critics, who said it would do little to slow the nation's swelling oil consumption.

Top administration officials said their plan would save 10 billion gallons of gasoline over nearly two decades, or roughly 25 days' worth of gas under current consumption trends. It is the first sweeping change of fuel regulations covering light-duty trucks, a category that includes sport utility vehicles, pickup trucks and vans.

But it also included a broadside against the authority of California and other states, including New York, to move forward with plans to regulate automotive emissions of global warming gases. Efforts by several states on the East and West Coasts to regulate emissions would save significantly more gasoline in those states than the Bush administration's proposal.

The administration said its plan would increase the average mileage of light trucks to 24 miles a gallon for 2011 models, compared with 21.2 miles a gallon in today's models.

"This plan is good news for American consumers," Transportation Secretary Norman Y. Mineta said in a statement, "because it will ensure the vehicles they buy get more miles to the gallon, requiring fewer stops at the gas station, and ultimately saving them money at the pump." Mr. Mineta announced the plan at a news conference in Los Angeles, where he arrived in a silver Lincoln Navigator sport utility vehicle.

But the structure of the new proposal makes it difficult to know exactly how much gasoline might be saved over all, and it could open new avenues for automakers to game a regulatory system already known for its loopholes.

"Making our cars and trucks go farther on a gallon of gas," said Dan Becker, director of the Sierra Club's global-warming program, "is the biggest single step we can take to save money at the gas pump, cut oil dependence and curb global warming."

After a three-month public comment period, the administration will submit a final rule by April. The news conference yesterday was held at a Mobil station near Los Angeles International Airport, where a gallon of regular gasoline sells for $2.80.

The administration said the rules would cost automakers about $6.2 billion, but provide $7 billion to $7.5 billion in consumer savings at the gas pump, based on assumed gasoline prices of $1.51 to $1.58 a gallon - a level that critics said was too low.

Ultimately, many analysts say that rising gas prices could supersede regulation as the prod to finally force automakers to produce vehicles that are more fuel-efficient than Lincoln Navigators. This year, the two domestic-owned automakers, General Motors and the Ford Motor Company, which makes Lincolns, have been redoubling their efforts to develop a smaller breed of sport utility vehicles to better compete with Toyota and Honda.

Gloria Bergquist, a spokeswoman for the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, a lobbying group for G.M., Toyota and most other leading producers, said of the plan, "It's going to take us weeks to review it and assess it and determine what it's going to mean for automakers."

"Today's announcement represents the sixth straight increase in fuel economy standards, and that's a challenge to automakers even with all the fuel-efficient technologies on sale today," she said, adding that for automakers, higher prices at the pump would ease the burden of the rules by pushing drivers to start buying more fuel-efficient vehicles.

"Higher gas prices will be our ally, ironically," Ms. Bergquist said.

If nothing else, the 169-page plan is complex. Today, corporate average fuel economy regulations - known in the industry as CAFE standards - divide each automaker's annual new vehicle production into two categories: passenger cars and light-duty trucks. New cars must average 27.5 miles a gallon and light trucks 20.7 miles a gallon in 2004 models. Rules for cars are not being changed.

The administration previously increased the standard for light trucks to 22.2 miles a gallon by the 2007 model year. The new plan would raise it to 23.5 miles a gallon by 2010.

More important, it would create a system in which each automaker's new light trucks would be divided into six size classes. Larger size classes would have less demanding fuel economy targets. From 2008 to 2010 models, automakers would have a choice between the current system and the new size-based system. By 2011 models, only the new system would remain.

The Bush administration rules are modest in comparison with emission regulations proposed by California that would have the effect of forcing steeper fuel economy increases on vehicles sold there, as well as in other states that mimic California's air-quality rules. The industry is challenging California in court, and the administration's proposal said that such efforts by states would "interfere" with its plan.

A range of people who have studied the structure of the plan say it would alleviate difficulties G.M., Ford and DaimlerChrysler have under the existing system because they build more heavy S.U.V.'s and pickup trucks than their Asian competitors.

One concern among critics is that an automaker could slightly enlarge some vehicles to move them into a less demanding category. For instance, if the length and width of the Subaru Outback were increased by a fraction of an inch, it could move from a category with a fuel target of 28.7 miles a gallon in 2011 to a category requiring 27.1 miles a gallon.

Such gaming characterizes the current system; Subaru recently raised the Outback higher off the ground and made other technical design modifications to change its classification from a passenger car to the less-demanding status of light truck.

The new approach makes it both easier and harder to reclassify cars as trucks. Much-criticized rules related to seat design have allowed vehicles like the Chrysler PT Cruiser to be counted as trucks, and the loophole would be expanded in the new system. But since the smallest trucks would have mileage targets comparable to cars, there might be less incentive to do so.

The administration's plan is expected to reopen a vigorous debate about the effects of fuel economy regulations on safety. A leading architect of the plan, John D. Graham of the Office of Management and Budget, has been an author of much-criticized research in the past contending that fuel economy regulations killed thousands of people each year because they gave automakers incentives to make vehicles lighter so they would be more fuel-efficient. Similar findings have been published more recently by the National Academy of Sciences and are at the heart of the plan's structure.

Consumer groups dispute such contentions and raised concerns about the opposite problem, that increasingly heavy S.U.V.'s and pickup trucks have added risks for other drivers. The proposal, as written, could add to the disputes if automakers made vehicles larger to put them into less stringent categories.

In an e-mail message, Mr. Graham said the plan was "both good for consumers and good for the environment," adding that it would "also reduce the adverse safety effects that motorists experienced under the old CAFE system."

The proposal does not extend fuel regulations to the largest and least fuel-efficient S.U.V.'s and pickup trucks - those like the Hummer H2 that are more than 8,500 pounds when loaded. The administration said it would seek further comment on whether larger S.U.V.'s alone should be inserted into the final rule.

Danny Hakim reported from Chicago for this article and John M. Broder from Los Angeles.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/24/automobiles/24cafe.html